Showing posts with label Beginners. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beginners. Show all posts
Wednesday, 2 September 2015
Published 07:49 by bestvaluepicks
Below are ten guidelines that are smart and often necessary to follow in order to be successful at long term investing in stocks.
1. "Buy low and sell high."
This is a very obvious bit of advice but achieving this goal can be more difficult than it might seem and this simple rule can be easy to forget. An obvious key to successfully investing in stocks is to pick investments to buy that will increase in value over time and then eventually sell the stock at a higher price. Some of the recommendations and guidelines that follow may be helpful in following this first principle.In order to "buy low" and "sell high" it is sometime necessary to do the opposite of what the majority of investors seem to be doing. This is called being a contrarian. When everyone else is pessimistic about a company they have likely acted on their negative opinions and sold shares of its stock. On the other hand, when investors are very optimistic about the prospects of a company, they have likely already acted on their hopefulness and purchased the stock. An investor who can buy at an extreme moment when others have been selling and sell when others have been aggressively buying may be able to accomplish the goal of "buying low/selling high" more often than those who follow the general consensus.
Unfortunately, this strategy doesn't always work! Sometimes there are good reasons for investors' pessimism and a company is headed from bad to worse. Someone who buys when everyone else is selling may end up owning stock in a company with grim long term prospects. Alternatively, selling shares of a great company with wonderful long term potential (e.g., Microsoft in the early 1990s; Apple in the early 2000s) too soon can be very frustrating as well. Needless to say, successfully investing in stocks is never easy.
2. Understand what you are buying.
Some investors meet with success by investing in companies for which they already have a very good understanding (or hold a good opinion of) because they like what the company makes or the service they provide. This is a perfectly valid and, often, useful strategy. At the same time, it is a good idea to do some research about the past financial performance of a company and projections for its future earnings. Personal experience can help, but there are many reasons why it will not always lead to accurate predictions about the future stock price of a company.
3. Patience is a virtue.
4. "Growth at a reasonable price" investing.
The major risk that growth investors run into with their approach is that they will pay a very rich price for a company with seemingly good long term prospects. Even a small disappointment in the earnings of a company with an expensive stock price (i.e., high P/E ratio) can result in a big drop in the share price as investors reconsider how fast the company will grow its earnings and sell the stock. A major setback in a company with a high P/E ratio can devastate its share price (e.g., the price of a stock could drop 25% or more on bad earnings news). Alternatively, with a value-oriented investment approach, the risk in owning what appears to be a cheap stock is that what seems like a temporary setback is actually much more serious or permanent in nature. A low share price, which looks like a bargain, may be well justified and the price could head much lower as more investors sell the stock after they come to recognize the long term nature of the company's problems.
Another investment strategy that attempts to blend the best of the growth and value-oriented strategies is called "growth-at-a-reasonable price" (GARP). Investors who follow this approach pay particular attention to a stock's PEG ratio. This is the P/E of a stock divided by its annual earnings growth rate. PEG ratios under 1.0 indicate that a company's P/E ratio is less than its growth rate. The lower the PEG ratio the more it suggests that the stock is reasonably valued (or even undervalued). Alternatively, the greater the PEG ratio, the more expensive the share price would seem to be.
A GARP investment strategy can offer protection against the problematic risks of both growth and value-style approaches. Investors who follow a GARP approach in a disciplined manner will draw a limit on what they are willing to pay for a stock with fast growing earnings. GARP investors like companies with fast growing earnings (the denominator in the PEG ratio) but, at the same time, will insist that this growth rate be high enough to justify a stock with a high P/E ratio. Likewise, GARP investors will not purchase a stock simply because it has a very low P/E ratio. If the company's earnings are not also increasing at a decent rate, they will avoid buying the stock for fear that the company's earnings have stopped growing (or worse have begun to decline).
5. Some of the "secrets" to Warren Buffett's success as an investor.
Buffett is a great illustration of an investor who has followed the above listed guidelines virtually to perfection. He has a keen knack for "buying low, then selling high." He is very patient in his approach, both in terms of waiting until the right opportunity comes along before making a stock purchase and then owning shares of stock in a company for a long period of time to allow his investment thesis (i.e, the reasons why he likes the company and purchased the stock) to be borne out. Buffett tends to stick to investments where he can understand the business the company is in well enough to make thoughtful and independent decisions. For example, he personally is uncomfortable owning technology-oriented companies as he does not feel he understands the products these companies make (nor trends in the broader industry) well enough to make smart investment decisions. Buffett's investment approach is probably best categorized as a "growth-at-a-reasonable-price" strategy. Some people consider Buffett to be a value-oriented investor, given his tendency to buy shares of stock in companies when they appear to be "bargains" but Buffett is careful to avoid companies that do not appear to have bright prospects for their future earnings.
When Buffett discusses his investment philosophy he will highlight several things he is looking for in a company that he wants to invest in. The following include some of the most important things he looks for:
a) "A durable, competitive advantage." By this Buffett means that he wants a company that is relatively difficult to compete against; hence it will likely be able to sustain a high profit margin over time. Companies which have strong brand-name products (e.g., Coca Cola, Proctor & Gamble), or have patent protections on their products (pharmaceutical companies), or have very strong customer loyalty and high customer retention rates tend to have a "durable competitive advantage" over their competitors.
b) A competent and honest management. For obvious reasons, Buffett is only interested in investing in companies for which he respects and trusts the key managers of that company. An incompetent, and especially a dishonest, management team at a company can spell big problems and Buffett wants nothing to do with investing in a company where he has reason to doubt the abilities, strategies, or ethics of the managers of the company.
c) Pay a "reasonable" price for a stock. An indication of Warren Buffett's patience as an investor is that he refuses to overpay for a company's stock. While he may love thecompany, if the price is not right, he will not like the stock and seek out alternative investment opportunities or wait until the stock price becomes more attractively priced. Nevertheless, Buffett is not a cheapskate. A well known quote of his is that "it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." This is spoken like a true GARP investor: Buffett is willing to pay a reasonable price for a company with great future prospects and would choose to invest in such a business over a company that has a cheap stock but only modest potential for improved future earnings.
Another key to Buffet's success is his temperament. He seems much better than most investors at staying calm when others are panicking over short term concerns about the stock market or a particular company. In fact, Buffet welcomes it when other investors are very worried, as it may create potential to buy companies that others have hastily sold. Another famous quote of his is as follows: "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is actually the friend of the buyer of long-term values."b) A competent and honest management. For obvious reasons, Buffett is only interested in investing in companies for which he respects and trusts the key managers of that company. An incompetent, and especially a dishonest, management team at a company can spell big problems and Buffett wants nothing to do with investing in a company where he has reason to doubt the abilities, strategies, or ethics of the managers of the company.
c) Pay a "reasonable" price for a stock. An indication of Warren Buffett's patience as an investor is that he refuses to overpay for a company's stock. While he may love thecompany, if the price is not right, he will not like the stock and seek out alternative investment opportunities or wait until the stock price becomes more attractively priced. Nevertheless, Buffett is not a cheapskate. A well known quote of his is that "it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." This is spoken like a true GARP investor: Buffett is willing to pay a reasonable price for a company with great future prospects and would choose to invest in such a business over a company that has a cheap stock but only modest potential for improved future earnings.
6. Don't take a big loss.
Warren Buffet's first rule of investment is "Don't take a big loss." His second rule of investment is: "Don't forget Rule #1!"
A corollary to Buffet's rule is a piece of advice offered by Jim Cramer of the CNBC show "Mad Money": "Ring the register; no one ever lost money taking a profit." In particular, he directs this advice to investors who have seen shares of stock they own go up significantly in value. It may not be necessary to sell all shares, but it is a good idea to sell some shares in order to ensure that you realize a profit. For instance, if a stock doubles in price, some investors will sell half the shares they own, thereby recovering their initial investment and knowing that the remaining shares they own represent pure profit. Such a disciplined approach in taking profits helps to protect investment gains. However, it is a good idea not to reinvest the proceeds of such sales in companies within the same industry (e.g., selling stock in one energy company, then buying another company in the energy industry) in case the entire industry runs into difficulty and the stock price of all companies in that industry go down.7. Be aware of your emotional tolerance for losses
The stock market swings between extremes of human greed and fear. The best investors recognize these extremes and try to take advantage of them. Always set aside some of your investment money in the form of "cash" for extreme events that cause the stock market to significantly sell off. Such a cash cushion allows investors to better weather a market downturn and to take advantage of companies that suddenly see their stock price drop for no good reason due to widespread investor panic. Taking advantage of a good buying opportunity when many other investors are fearful is only possible if you yourself are not also in a panic. Be aware of the extreme emotions of greed and fear in yourself. Succumbing to either these emotions (selling due to fear and buying due to over optimism and greed) is the cause of a lot of investment mistakes.
8. Dividends are important.
9. "Don’t confuse a bull market for genius."
10. Adapt to changing circumstances.
An easy "mistake" to make is to invest in a company that make products (or provides services) that can be made obsolete by newer technologies which come along. When a new technology develops or something else changes in a significant way that will harm the future earnings of a company, it may be wise to see the "writing on the wall" and sell the stock. Circumstances change and developments emerge that were not easily foreseen. All good investors take in new information and reassess their investment decisions based on new facts. Good investors force themselves to "listen to what they don't want to hear." In other words, if there is bad news about a company, it should be acknowledged and one must then think about the long term implications such news has for the earnings potential of the business.
Tuesday, 2 June 2015
Published 08:21 by bestvaluepicks
Sensex Calculation Methodology
Sensex is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology.
As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period.
The market capitalization of a company = Price of its stock * Number of shares.
The free-float market Capitalization. =This market capitalization * the free-Float factor to determine
The base period of Sensex is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points.
This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100.
The calculation of Sensex involves dividing the Free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor.
The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the Sensex. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc.
During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate Sensex every 15 seconds and disseminated in real time.
Example:-
Suppose the Index consists of only 2 stocks: Stock A and Stock B.
Suppose company A has 1,000 shares in total, of which 200 are held by the promoters, so that only 800 shares are available for trading to the general public. These 800 shares are the so-called 'free-floating' shares.
Similarly, company B has 2,000 shares in total, of which 1,000 are held by the promoters and the rest 1,000 are free-floating.
Now suppose the current market price of stock A is Rs 120. Thus, the 'total' market capitalisation of company A is Rs 120,000 (1,000 x 120), but its free-float market capitalisation is Rs 96,000 (800 x 120).
Similarly, suppose the current market price of stock B is Rs 200. The total market capitalisation of company B will thus be Rs 400,000 (2,000 x 200), but its free-float market cap is only Rs 200,000 (1,000 x 200).
So as of today the market capitalisation of the index (i.e. stocks A and B) is Rs 520,000 (Rs 120,000 + Rs 400,000); while the free-float market capitalisation of the index is Rs 296,000. (Rs 96,000 + Rs 200,000).
The year 1978-79 is considered the base year of the index with a value set to 100. What this means is that suppose at that time the market capitalisation of the stocks that comprised the index then was, say, 60,000 (remember at that time there may have been some other stocks in the index, not A and B, but that does not matter), then we assume that an index market cap of 60,000 is equal to an index-value of 100.
Thus the value of the index today is = 296,000 x 100/60,000 = 493.33
This is how the Sensex is calculated.
The factor 100/60000 is called index divisor.
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