Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Published 08:21 by

How Index is Calculated?


Sensex Calculation Methodology 
Sensex is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology.
As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period.
The market capitalization of a company           = Price of its  stock *  Number of shares.
The free-float market Capitalization.       =This market capitalization * the free-Float factor to determine
The base period of Sensex is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points.
This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100.
The calculation of Sensex involves dividing the Free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor.
The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the Sensex. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc.
During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate Sensex every 15 seconds and disseminated in real time.

Example:-
Suppose the Index consists of only 2 stocks: Stock A and Stock B.
Suppose company A has 1,000 shares in total, of which 200 are held by the promoters, so that only 800 shares are available for trading to the general public. These 800 shares are the so-called 'free-floating' shares.
Similarly, company B has 2,000 shares in total, of which 1,000 are held by the promoters and the rest 1,000 are free-floating.
Now suppose the current market price of stock A is Rs 120. Thus, the 'total' market capitalisation of company A is Rs 120,000 (1,000 x 120), but its free-float market capitalisation is Rs 96,000 (800 x 120).
Similarly, suppose the current market price of stock B is Rs 200. The total market capitalisation of company B will thus be Rs 400,000 (2,000 x 200), but its free-float market cap is only Rs 200,000 (1,000 x 200).
So as of today the market capitalisation of the index (i.e. stocks A and B) is Rs 520,000 (Rs 120,000 + Rs 400,000); while the free-float market capitalisation of the index is Rs 296,000. (Rs 96,000 + Rs 200,000).
The year 1978-79 is considered the base year of the index with a value set to 100. What this means is that suppose at that time the market capitalisation of the stocks that comprised the index then was, say, 60,000 (remember at that time there may have been some other stocks in the index, not A and B, but that does not matter), then we assume that an index market cap of 60,000 is equal to an index-value of 100.
Thus the value of the index today is = 296,000 x 100/60,000 = 493.33
This is how the Sensex is calculated.
The factor 100/60000 is called index divisor.
Read More
      edit

Thursday, 5 March 2015

Published 00:37 by

Medium Term best value pick-MCX Ltd

Merger of the forward markets commission (FMC) with SEBI to strengthen regulation of commodity market futures.seems to be very positive for MCX Ltd because

 Commodity exchanges may soon be able to launch new products including options, indices, equity and currency derivatives.

 An empowered regulator would have raiding and seizure powers,and would thereby be able to curb illegal Dabba trading (bucket shops). As per industry estimates,
Read More
      edit
Published 00:25 by

Medium Term Pick - Suprajeet Engineerig Ltd






  • Suprajit Engineering Ltd. (SEL) is a market leader in Automotive Control Cables for the 2-wheeler segment with a 60% market share besides holding a 40% market share in the 4-wheeler space.Ramson (competitor co.) sales were 1.5x SEL sales in FY02 but in FY14 SEL sales were 5x that of Ramson’s.
  • The company has been able to maintain its high market-share as a result of better cost competitiveness versus peers , due to its production proximity to its OEM customers.
  • The company continues to target growth of 5% to 10% above the industry growth, buoyed by new product introduction in the aftermarket segment (both independent & OES route) and export growth ( 30% cost advantage over global peers).
  • Company has received approvals from marquee customers like BMW, VW, John Deere etc and supplies small quantities to them, which has potential to grow exponentially.
  • SEL has planned INR 65 cr capex each over the next 2-years for its 3 facilities, which will increase capacity to about 200-225 million cables.
  • A faster–than-industry growth rate resulting in better market-share, cost competency versus peers and healthy ROCE of 38%, will augur well for the company going forward.
We recommend medium term Buy @ CMP of 135-140


Read More
      edit
Published 00:01 by

Short term delivery - Buy Paushak Ltd



Paushak Limited is engaged in the development and manufacture of phosgene based specialty chemicals and intermediates, reported its financial results for the quarter ended 31st Dec, 2014.

The company’s net profit increased by 112.59% and stood at Rs. 30.40 million against Rs. 14.30 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year. Revenue for the quarter increased by 48.05% to Rs. 178.40 million from Rs. 120.50 million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs. 9.47 a share during the quarter as against Rs. 4.45 over previous year period.

 Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 47.40 million as against Rs. 29.50 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

At the current market price of Rs. 401.10, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.22 x FY15E and 9.83 x FY16E
respectively.

Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E are seen at Rs. 35.76 and Rs.40.81 respectively. 

We recommend Short term delivery Buy Paushak Ltd in the range of 405-415 for a target of 435/450/465
Read More
      edit

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Published 04:14 by

Review of Budget 2015 short term picks

1. SBI Reco @305 CMP:294 Action:HOLD

2.YES Bank Reco@810 CMP:858 Action:HOLD

3. Crompton Greaves Reco @172 CMP:180 Action:HOLD

4. India Cements Reco @ 102  CMP : 104 Action:HOLD
Read More
      edit

Monday, 2 March 2015

Published 10:33 by

Investor, You Are Your Own Worst Enemy: Parag Parikh

Parag Parikh, the veteran value investor, is a renowned authority on behavioural finance. He has written two bestsellers on the topic called “Value Investing and Behavioral Finance: Insights into Indian Stock Market Realities” and “Stocks to Riches: Insights on Investor Behaviour”

In his latest article, Parag Parikh points out that investors make investment decisions which are distorted by their own biases. The two biases that come into play are the ‘Availability‘ bias and the ‘Representativeness‘ bias.
Read More
      edit

Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Published 00:29 by

Budget 2015 Short term picks

1.Buy SBI @305 for a target of Rs.350

2.Buy Yes Bank@810 for a target of Rs1000

Key Triggers: Savings Allowances expected from the budget and Expected rate cut ahead

3. Crompton Greaves Buy@172 for a target of 220 
Read More
      edit

Thursday, 12 February 2015

Published 19:31 by

Book profit - Rolta India

Rolta India has shown momentum and touched a high of ₹127 on Feb 12th, book profit today @128 to 130 levels as targets are achieved for the short term
Read More
      edit

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Published 06:23 by

Short Term Buy - Timken India

Timken India is a leading mid-sized manufacturer of tapered roller bearings and AP cartridge roller bearings. The revival of investor sentiment during the last year has seen the midcap stocks registering a multi-year breakout. The share price of Timken India has been in steady uptrend forming higher highs and higher lows in all time frames
Key technical observations

The stock has registered a breakout from the bullish Flag pattern in Wednesday’s session signalling the end of the secondary consolidation and resumption of the next up leg, thereby offering a fresh entry opportunity to ride theongoing uptrend from a medium-term perspective

The stock hit an all-time high of | 543 in the first week of January 2015 and, thereafter, entered a secondary corrective phase over the last four weeks. Pictorially, the sideways consolidation since January 1, 2015 till date appears to have taken the shape of a bullish Flag pattern on the weekly chart. A Flag formation is a bullish continuation pattern, which marks a temporary pause in an ongoing uptrend as bulls take a breather to gather steam for further northward journey

Structurally, the rallies are stronger and faster whereas the corrective declines are shallow and time consuming indicating a constructive price structure. The stock completely retraced its eight weeks decline of August-October in just five weeks signalling strength in the price structure. The 13 weeks EMA has historically acted as strongsupport in the stock during the secondary corrective price action as can be seen in the adjacent chart and iscurrently placed at | 490 levels

Volume behaviour is in line with bull market assumption where rallies are supported by volumes double than 50-week average of 10 lakh shares while declines have seen fairly low participation indicating larger participation inthe direction of the trend

Among oscillators, the 14 period RSI has bounced back taking support at its previous low and given a bullish crossover above its nine period’s average, thus validating the positive price trend

Strategy: Buy Timken India in the range of | 505.00–515.00 for a target price of | 675.00 with a stop loss below |475.00 on a closing basis

Conclusion: Based on the various technical observations listed above, we believe the stock is set for its next up leg within the broader bull phase and is likely to head towards | 676 levels being the price parity with the previous rally (543-371=172 points) from recent trough of | 504. Projects upside towards 676 (504+172=676)
Read More
      edit

Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Published 02:00 by

National Aluminium Co Ltd-Short Term BUY

NALCO has corrected 30% from its peak hit in September ’14 on account of a slide in aluminium prices, cancellation of coal block and subdued demand for metals. We believe the correction in the stock is overdone as we expect the impact of lower realisations on earnings would be offset by a sharp correction in raw material prices and higher external alumina sales. I expect operating margin to improve from 13.8% in FY14 to 20.6% in FY15 and 23% in FY16. NALCO currently has ~Rs61.5bn of cash and cash equivalent, implying Rs23.9/share or 49% of the CMP. I expect earnings CAGR of 29.9% over FY14-17E led by a combination of higher volumes and lower costs. At the CMP, the company is trading at 3.1x FY16 EV/EBIDTA, which is at huge discount to its historic average and is also lower than its international peers.

We recommend a strong Buy at current levels @ 50 for an easy Target of 60 in the short term
Read More
      edit